O'Malley Appears Victorious in Rematch (Updated 11/3, 12:30 a.m.)

Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley bucked a national GOP resurgence and decisively defeated his Republican rival Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in a bitter rematch between the standard-bearers of the state's political parties. 

As of 11:45 on Tuesday night O'Malley and his running mate, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, held an 11-point lead over Ehrlich and Mary Kane. O'Malley garnered 54.4 percent of the vote to Ehrlich's 43.5 percent, according to state Board of Elections numbers.

"Tonight we choose a better future for the children of Maryland," O'Malley told his supporters at the American Visionary Arts Museum near Baltimore's Inner Harbor. "I want to say to those that did not support us, thank you for voting. ... There will be public policy issues we will disagree on with each other, but we need to come together."

Ehrlich conceded defeat to supporters at the Maryland State Fairgrounds in Timonium. 

"A lot of you commented about the campaign and the negative ads and the some of the silly stuff you saw and the ludicrous charges, but just now, that's politics," Ehrlich said. "That's the nature of politics and we congratulate Gov. O'Malley tonight." 

Ehrlich, who grew up in Arbutus, seemed to echo sentiments he expressed earlier in the campaign, saying that if he lost he would not run for office again.

"This just closes a chapter in our life. That chapter began in 1996 with a 93 vote victory into the House of Delegates," said Ehrlich, a former Congressman, governor and state delegate. "It's a pretty good ride for a little kid from the Kendale Apartments."

He said he loves to compete and win but that in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1, "this is Maryland."

"If you're a Republican in Maryland it's tough, but we live to fight another day," Ehrlich said.

O'Malley's victory was impressive. Even in Baltimore County, an Ehrlich stronghold, the incumbent Democrat and former Baltimore city mayor, cut deeply into his Republican rival's support.  

His efforts in Baltimore County were no doubt aided by his brother and top campaign advisor, Peter O'Malley, who served as a Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith's chief of staff.

The governor acknowledged his brother last night.

"He's always been the nicest O'Malley," the governor said with a smile. "My father always said so."

Before the governor's arrival last night at the museum, his supporters let out a huge cheer at 9:56 p.m. when television news reports declared O'Malley the winner. Sen. Barbara Mikulski and Rep. Elijah Cummings gave fiery victory speeches as they waited for O'Malley.  

He was also joined by Sen. Ben Cardin, former Sen. John Sarbanes, Congressman  C.A. "Dutch" Ruppersberger, Maryland Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler and his family, including his wife Catherine Curran O'Malley.

Lt. Gov. Brown introduced O'Malley by thanking everyone for their support.

"For four years, Martin O'Malley and I have been on a journey with each and every one of you," Brown said. "There is still a lot to do going forward—not backwards. ... There are still chapters unwritten. And we've got one helluva of an author in Martin O'Malley."

At the Maryland State Fairgrounds, where Ehrlich's campaign was holding its post-election event, Republican supporters were somber.

Bert Miller, a Baltimore city resident, said he has been a long time Ehrlich supporter.

"I'm going to go home and cry," Miller said of O'Malley's victory. "Then I'm going to hold on to my wallet. Mr. O'Malley as a tax and spend liberal is working energetically for the destruction of the state of Maryland."

To Marylanders in this election season, the main issues were jobs and the future of the state's economy.

Holding small business roundtables on the campaign trail all summer, Ehrlich promised to make Maryland more business-friendly and roll the state sales tax back to 5 percent. He talked about lowering the corporate tax rate as well.

O'Malley made the case that his tough decisions in office helped Maryland maintain its AAA bond rating and weather the recession better than nearly every other state. He pitched continued state investment in education and public-private partnerships in technology and the life sciences to ensure Maryland remains competitive in the 21st century.

Two-plus years into the worst recession since the Great Depression, Republicans were expected to make huge gains Tuesday. Ehrlich hoped to follow Republican victories last year in nearby Virginia and New Jersey, where Republican candidates replaced Democratic governors.

On the campaign trail, whether it was O'Malley's "Jobs across Maryland" tour or Ehrlich's small business roundtable meetings in the every corner of the state, the economy overshadowed all else. The state's structural budget deficit was on the radar—a problem Ehrlich said would be best solved by slashing taxes and growing the economy.

O'Malley spoke of a more nuanced approach, which included spending cuts and possible revenue increases.

At the start of the campaign in the spring, O'Malley held a 7-8 point percentage point advantage. But by late July, a Rasmussen Reports poll showed O'Malley's lead had dropped a single digit.

Unemployment numbers did not improve significantly from the middle of the summer, which did not bode well for O'Malley. However, in television ads, media interviews, campaign stops and three debates, he touted the state's strong national economic rank and investments for the future. His job approval number hovered around the 50 percent mark, relatively healthy given the economic conditions and a strong campaign opponent in Ehrlich.

The O'Malley campaign and the Democratic Party did not hold back in this race, with President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton campaigning for O'Malley in October, in Prince George's County and the Federal Hill neighborhood of Baltimore, respectively.

In three October debates, hosted by WJZ in Baltimore, the Washington Post and WOLB radio station, the candidates' familiarity and animosity toward one another were often on display. Although both men are known commodities to voters, the polls began to move toward O'Malley during this mid-October debate period when the O'Malley campaign, holding a significant campaign funding advantage over the Ehrlich camp, hit the suburban Washington, D.C., counties with an aggressive television blitz.

Throughout the campaign, O'Malley held a significant lead among women, including a 12-point advantage in late July polling. Ehrlich ran strong among men, including an 8-point advantage in late July polling.

 The closest recent poll, in late July, by Gonzales Research, had O'Malley leading 45-42 percent with 8 percent undecided. A Magellan Strategies poll, take in June, had reported a 46-43 Ehrlich lead.

Ehrlich overwhelming carried Baltimore County in his victory over Democratic candidate Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002 and needed to carry the voter-rich county again by a large margin to upset O'Malley. Ehrlich, who selected Montgomery County attorney Mary Kane as his running mate, also sought to cut into that county's large Democratic voting bloc, hoping to offset O'Malley support in Baltimore city and Prince George's County.

Several likely 2012 Democratic candidates, including Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown, Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler and Baltimore County Executive James T. Smith, Jr., were scheduled to appear at the O'Malley election party.

Last week at a campaign rally in Montgomery County, Ehrlich said if he lost the race, it would likely be his last campaign.